Why Nobody Believes the Number - Hardcover

by Al Lewis (Author)

Why Nobody Believes the Numbers introduces a unique viewpoint to population health outcomes measurement: Results/ROIs should be presented as they are, not as we wish they would be. This viewpoint contrasts sharply with vendor/promoter/consultant claims along two very important dimensions:

(1) Why Nobody Believes presents outcomes/ROIs achievable right here on this very planet...

(2) ...calculated using actual data rather than controlled substances.

Indeed, nowhere in healthcare is it possible to find such sharply contrasting worldviews, methodologies, and grips on reality.

Why Nobody Believes the Numbers includes 12 case studies of vendors, carriers, and consultants who were apparently playing hooky the day their teacher covered fifth-grade math, as told by an author whose argument style can be so persuasive that he was once able to convince a resort to sell him a timeshare. The book's lesson: no need to believe what your vendor tells you -- instead you can estimate your own savings using "ingredients you already have in your kitchen." Don't be intimidated just because you lack a PhD in biostatistics, or even a Masters, Bachelor's, high-school equivalency diploma or up-to-date inspection sticker.

Why Nobody Believes the Numbers explains how to determine if the ROIs are real...and why they usually aren't. You'll learn how to:

• Figure out whether you are "moving the needle" or just crediting a program with changes that would have happened anyway
• Judge whether the ROIs your vendors report are plausible or even arithmetically possible
• Synthesize all these insights into RFPs and contracts that truly hold vendors accountable for results

Front Jacket

This is a must-read for anyone involved in developing policy or making purchase decisions on programs that try to improve health and save money.

--Bob Galvin, Chief Executive Officer, Equity Healthcare (Blackstone Group); co-founder, Leapfrog Group; founder, Bridges to Excellence

Lewis sugarcoats the bitter medicine of math with a generous amount of humor, making this the most painless lesson in outcomes analysis ever published. The lesson: trust your own judgment.

--Tom Scully, former Administrator, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services; Senior Counsel, Alston & Bird; Partner, Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe

Lewis has single-handedly created what industry committees have failed to create: a how-to guide for valid outcomes analysis.

--Warren Todd, former President and Executive Director, the Care Continuum Alliance

Make better health care decisions by understanding your own data

Behind every health plan and benefits department decision are the numbers that illuminate and drive the cost of coverage. An easy-to-follow guide to population health management, Why Nobody Believes the Numbers helps you interpret these numbers, explains why and how experts often make them up, and shows that you don't need to rely on expensive--and as the hilarious examples show, often numerically challenged--consultants and vendors to do evaluations. Why Nobody Believes the Numbers gives you the tools to:

• Figure out whether you are moving the needle or just crediting a program with changes that would have happened anyway
• Determine whether the ROIs your vendors report are plausible or even arithmetically possible (the majority aren't)
• Synthesize all these insights into RFPs and contracts that let vendors know that you weren't born yesterday

Back Jacket

"This is a must-read for anyone involved in developing policy or making purchase decisions on programs that try to improve health and save money."

--Bob Galvin, Chief Executive Officer, Equity Healthcare (Blackstone Group); co-founder, Leapfrog Group; founder, Bridges to Excellence

"Lewis sugarcoats the bitter medicine of math with a generous amount of humor, making this the most painless lesson in outcomes analysis ever published. The lesson: trust your own judgment."

--Tom Scully, former Administrator, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services; Senior Counsel, Alston & Bird; Partner, Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe

"Lewis has single-handedly created what industry committees have failed to create: a how-to guide for valid outcomes analysis."

--Warren Todd, former President and Executive Director, the Care Continuum Alliance

Make better health care decisions by understanding your own data

Behind every health plan and benefits department decision are the numbers that illuminate and drive the cost of coverage. An easy-to-follow guide to population health management, Why Nobody Believes the Numbers helps you interpret these numbers, explains why and how "experts" often make them up, and shows that you don't need to rely on expensive--and as the hilarious examples show, often numerically challenged--consultants and vendors to do evaluations. Why Nobody Believes the Numbers gives you the tools to:

• Figure out whether you are "moving the needle" or just crediting a program with changes that would have happened anyway
• Determine whether the ROIs your vendors report are plausible or even arithmetically possible (the majority aren't)
• Synthesize all these insights into RFPs and contracts that let vendors know that you weren't born yesterday

Author Biography

AL LEWIS, President of the Disease Management Purchasing Consortium, is widely credited with inventing disease management and was named "the national leader in analyzing care management outcomes" in the 9th Annual Report on the Disease Management and Wellness Industries. He provides procurement and outcomes consulting to health plans and human resources/benefits departments, and administers the industry certification program in Critical Outcomes Report Analysis. He holds undergraduate and graduate degrees from Harvard.